Who Will Win the NFC?

A number of years ago, some computer guys did an in depth analysis of NFL statistics to determine the best predictor of who will go to the Super Bowl.  The result:  Teams with the greatest differential between yards/pass play gained on offense minus yards/pass play given up on defense is the best predictor of who will go all the way.  We are ten games into the season and let's see how the Packers stack up in the NFC.  These are the current differentials and the number of wins:

7 wins:  Green Bay +1.2, Chicago +1.2,  Philadelphia + 1.1, New Orleans +0.7, 
             and Tampa Bay +0.6
6 wins:  NY Giants +0.6
5 wins:  Washington -0.1, Seattle -1.1

Once again the # of wins correlates with the differential.  At this point the Packers are looking good.  However, there is an anomaly that I left out.  Atlanta has 8 wins but a differential of -0.8 (6.7 yards per pass on offense while giving up 7.5 on defense) So this system doesn't work?  Well, for one, we are only ten games in and things can change alot between now and the end of the season.  Secondly, if you look at Atlanta's games, they have been winning close ones and their schedule has been somewhat easy.  And they don't turn the ball over.  But this is all good news for the Packers.  If they take care of the ball, they should beat Atlanta this Sunday.  (On the other hand, with Michael Vick at QB, the Eagles are on the rise).

This system is not perfect, primarily because of the turnover factor and that things change throughout the year.  In fact, I bet it works better if you only look at the last 8 games of the year (as teams can change dramatically because of injuries, etc).  It also depends on who you play and when.  However, if they played 100 games, I bet the correlation would be almost perfect.  The  bottom line is that winning in the NFL requires great quarterback play and great pass defense.  If you complete long pass plays, and don't give up long pass plays, and don't turn it over, you win.

By the way, in the AFC it should be Pittsburgh and San Diego in the finals (but I will have to recalculate after another 4-5 games and see where they stand).